Happy New Year?

1 January 2012

Greetings to all who share with me this space-time continuum. We are but specks of dust in this vast universe — but let’s do our best to be meaningful, useful specks and try to leave this world a better place, one day at a time.

And now for a few predictions in the geopolitical space:

1. Romney wins GOP Nomination, picks Santorum as his running mate, loses to Obama in November. Romney knows his only hope of a big Republican turnout is to choose a “Tea Acceptable” running mate. But it’s not enough to prevent Obama from riding a rising economy to victory. Congress successfully kills any further stimulus, arguing that it increases the deficit, but firms in the private sector start investing again, fearing to be left behind in the recovery.

2. The Euro survives, and the EU survives. Europe, despite it’s problems, rides a weakened Euro to an export-led recovery, powered mainly by demand from increasing purchasing power in Asia, Latin America and Africa and — surprise — not just from the elites, but a growing middle class.

3. Assad hangs on in Syria. A war-weary EU and US don’t have the appetite to intervene, deferring to a toothless Arab league continuing it’s on and off diplomacy, while the government pursues a carefully measured campaign of murdering the protesters — never enough to provoke intervention but enough to discourage open rebellion.

4. Obama continues his predator-based counter terrorism strategy which, while largely effective, fails to prevent one significant terrorist strike in 2012, which almost derails his re-election bid.

5. Iran gets the bomb. Ahmadinejad assures Israel it will be used for peaceful, domestic purposes.

6. Kim reconciles, remarries, redivorces. Surpasses 20,000 Followers on Twitter.

Prospero Ano Nuevo a todos!

Rupert Scofield


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